A matsayin kayan da ake amfani da su wajen samar da polyester, sauyin farashin danyen mai yana ƙayyade farashin polyester kai tsaye. A cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, rikice-rikicen siyasa sun zama ɗaya daga cikin muhimman abubuwan da ke shafar farashin man fetur na duniya. Kwanan nan, yanayin yakin Rasha da Ukraine ya sauya, kuma ana sa ran man fetur na Rasha zai dawo kasuwar duniya, wanda hakan ke da tasiri sosai kan farashin man fetur na duniya!
Man fetur zai faɗi zuwa dala $60?
A cewar rahotannin da CCTV ta bayar a baya, a ranar 12 ga Fabrairu, US Eastern Time, Shugaban Amurka Trump ya yi waya da Shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin da Shugaban Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Bangarorin biyu sun amince su "hada kai sosai" don kawo karshen rikicin da ke tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine da kuma tura kungiyoyinsu don "fara tattaunawa nan take."
Citi ya ce a cikin wani rahoto da ya fitar a ranar 13 ga Fabrairu cewa gwamnatin Trump tana aiki kan shirin zaman lafiya don kokarin warware rikicin Rasha da Ukraine. Shirin na iya hada da tilasta wa Rasha da Ukraine cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta nan da ranar 20 ga Afrilu, 2025. Idan shirin ya yi nasara, shirin zai iya haifar da dage wasu takunkumi a kan Rasha, wanda hakan zai sauya yanayin wadata da bukatu na kasuwar mai ta duniya.
Yawan man fetur na Rasha ya canza sosai tun bayan barkewar rikicin. A cewar kiyasin Citi, man fetur na Rasha ya karu da kusan tan biliyan 70 na tan mil. A lokaci guda kuma, wasu kasashe kamar Indiya sun kara bukatar man fetur na Rasha sosai, inda suka karu da ganga 800,000 a kowace rana da kuma ganga miliyan 2 a kowace rana, bi da bi.
Idan ƙasashen Yamma suka sassauta takunkumin da aka sanya wa Rasha sannan suka dage wajen daidaita dangantakar kasuwanci, samar da mai da fitar da shi daga Rasha zai iya ƙaruwa sosai. Wannan zai ƙara canza yanayin samar da mai a duniya.
A ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki, takunkumin da Amurka ta sanya a yanzu ya bar kusan ganga miliyan 30 na man fetur na Rasha a cikin teku.
Citi ya yi imanin cewa idan shirin zaman lafiya ya ci gaba, wannan man fetur da ya makale da kuma koma bayan man fetur sakamakon sauyin hanyoyin ciniki (kimanin ganga miliyan 150-200) za a iya sake shi zuwa kasuwa, wanda hakan zai kara matsin lamba ga samar da kayayyaki.
Sakamakon haka, farashin man fetur na Brent zai kasance tsakanin dala 60 zuwa 65 a kowace ganga a rabin na biyu na 2025.
Manufofin Trump na rage farashin mai
Baya ga abin da ya shafi Rasha, Trump shi ma yana cikin waɗanda ke fuskantar koma baya a farashin mai.
Wani bincike da Haynes Boone LLC ta gudanar kan ma'aikatan banki 26 a ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata ya nuna cewa suna sa ran farashin WTI zai faɗi zuwa $58.62 a kowace ganga a shekarar 2027, kimanin $10 a kowace ganga ƙasa da matakin yanzu, yana nuna cewa bankuna suna shirin ganin farashin ya faɗi ƙasa da $60 a tsakiyar sabon wa'adin mulkin Trump. Trump ya yi kamfen ne bisa alƙawarin tura masu samar da man shale don ƙara yawan samarwa, amma ba a san ko yana da niyyar cika wannan alƙawarin ba tunda masu samar da man Amurka kamfanoni ne masu zaman kansu waɗanda ke ƙayyade matakan samarwa galibi bisa ga tattalin arziki.
Trump yana son ya shawo kan hauhawar farashin mai a cikin gida na Amurka ta hanyar rage farashin mai, Citi ta kiyasta cewa idan farashin danyen mai na Brent ya faɗi zuwa dala 60 a kowace ganga a kwata na huɗu na 2025 (farashin danyen mai na WTI ya kai dala 57 a kowace ganga), kuma farashin kayayyakin mai ya ci gaba da kasancewa a matakin da ake ciki a yanzu, farashin amfani da kayayyakin mai na Amurka zai faɗi da kusan dala biliyan 85 a kowace shekara. Wannan kusan kashi 0.3 cikin 100 ne na GDP na Amurka.
Menene tasirin da ke kan kasuwar masaku?
Lokaci na ƙarshe da kasuwar man fetur ta New York (WTI) ta faɗi ƙasa da dala 60 ya kasance a ranar 29 ga Maris, 2021, lokacin da farashin man fetur na New York ya faɗi zuwa dala 59.60 a kowace ganga. A halin yanzu, kasuwar man fetur ta Brent ta yi ciniki da dala 63.14 a kowace ganga a ranar. A wancan lokacin, man fetur na polyester POY ya kai kimanin yuan 7510 a kowace tan, har ma ya fi yuan 7350 a kowace tan na yanzu.
Duk da haka, a wancan lokacin, a cikin sarkar masana'antar polyester, PX har yanzu ita ce mafi girma, farashin ya ci gaba da ƙarfi, kuma ya mamaye mafi yawan ribar sarkar masana'antu, kuma yanayin da ake ciki a yanzu ya fuskanci sauye-sauye na asali.
Sai dai daga mahangar bambancin, a ranar 14 ga Fabrairu, kwangilar cinikin mai ta New York mai zuwa 03 ta ƙare a kan yuan 70.74/ton, idan tana son ta faɗi zuwa dala 60, akwai bambancin kusan dala 10.
Bayan farkon wannan bazara, duk da cewa farashin filament na polyester ya tashi zuwa wani mataki, sha'awar kamfanonin saka kayan saƙa har yanzu tana kan gaba, ba a yi amfani da ita ba, kuma ana ci gaba da kiyaye tunanin jira da gani, kuma kayan polyester suna ci gaba da taruwa.
Idan ɗanyen mai ya shiga cikin mawuyacin hali, zai ƙara zurfafa tsammanin kasuwa game da kayan masarufi, kuma kayan polyester za su ci gaba da taruwa. Duk da haka, a gefe guda kuma, kakar yadi a watan Maris na zuwa, adadin oda ya ƙaru, kuma akwai buƙatar kayan masarufi mai tsauri, wanda zai iya rage tasirin ƙarancin man fetur zuwa wani mataki.
Lokacin Saƙo: Fabrairu-25-2025